METR Assessment: Anthropic Capability Progress on Well-Specified Tasks ~2x Historical Rate; AECI ~1.9x Faster Since Oct 2025
On November 5, independent evaluator METR published a high-access assessment at Anthropic (Aug 12–Oct 29, 2026). As of October 2026, Anthropic is likely improving model capabilities on well-specified tasks at about twice the March 2024–October 2025 historical rate. Since October 2025, AECI scores grew at an estimated 1.9x the prior rate [95% CI 1.5–2.8]. METR judges that a majority of current acceleration is attributable to AI-assisted R&D, not faster training-compute scaling; Anthropic redacted much of the most informative evidence.

Key Takeaways
- Subjective call: ~2x historical rate on well-specified tasks (high uncertainty; ~1.3x–3x plausible; METR)
- AECI: ~1.9x faster growth since Oct 2025 [95% CI 1.5–2.8], ~two years of prior progress in one year (includes unreleased models)
- Attribution: confident not from faster training-compute growth; majority of current acceleration from AI-assisted R&D (~80% subjective guess), not fully autonomous contributions
- Risk: no clear bottlenecks observed for next 12 months, so further acceleration risk; much key evidence redacted by Anthropic
- Process: separate from the Oct 15 employee-like access pilot; compute-allocation verification was canceled mid-engagement







